Comments on: Cost Overruns For Seattle-area Tunnel Projects

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By: Don’t Worry, It’s Probably Nothing | hugeasscity

Don’t Worry, It’s Probably Nothing | hugeasscity — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 17:31:06 +0000

[...] tunnel project, see Cary Moon’s recent Crosscut piece.* And this is why megaprojects so often go over budget. And this is why being on the hook for cost overruns [...]

By: Eric de Place

Eric de Place — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 22:03:16 +0000

David and I have been clashing in comment threads all over town for the last few days. So I just wanted to clear up this thread too. Quickly:

The correct number for contingency is 22%. Wash DOT’s tunnel cost estimates are here: http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/Projects/Viaduct/TunnelCostEstimate.htm. The $418 million line-item for “risk” is 22% of the tunnel’s $1.913 total estimated price tag. That’s why everyone uses the 22% number.

David is right that construction costs have fallen recently (and this is one reason why the Mt Baker tunnel comparison is interesting). But it is only one factor among many that affects the final cost of a megaproject. We should also not ignore technology, geology, urban environment, or the degree-of-readiness of engineering estimates. It’s all stuff that I address in more detail in the report.

– Eric de Place, Sightline

By: The Tunnel, Again - Seattle Transit Blog

The Tunnel, Again - Seattle Transit Blog — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 16:09:31 +0000

[...] de Place of Sightline says local tunnel projects almost always have serious overruns. As before, I’m leery of these anti-everything fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) tactics, [...]