Comments on: A Repsonse To The Viaduct Earthquake Video

By: Endorsements: WSDOT for Mallahan « Seattle Likes Bikes!

Endorsements: WSDOT for Mallahan « Seattle Likes Bikes! — Wed, 07 Dec 2011 00:12:12 +0000

[...] EDIT: It also now appears that the Viaduct Stakeholders Advisory Committee hadn’t even been informed of this video even though WSDOT had been sitting on it for the last 2 years. http://hugeasscity.com/2009/10/26/a-repsonse-to-the-viaduct-earthquake-video/ [...]

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By: Cary

Cary — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 01:48:05 +0000

Here’s a reasonable, principled suggestion for what leaders should do given this risk. According to an impressive collection of experts at UW — including a certified MacArthur Genius! — planned closure is much safer and more manageable than a catastrophic failure.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/opinion/2002837776_viaduct02.html

By: Joe G

Joe G — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 20:56:34 +0000

All this discussion about when the next quake will hit is really kind of silly. The science for predicting earthquakes is very unreliable and pretty much nonexistent.

By: Bill B

Bill B — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 19:40:45 +0000

sorry, “shut” not “should”…

By: Bill B

Bill B — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 19:39:44 +0000

“To summarize: the maximum probable earthquake in Washington would be a subduction earthquake having a magnitude exceeding 8 and an epicenter near the coast; it would be caused by sudden slip between the Juan de Fuca and North America plates. From the dating of organic material preserved in rocks along the coast, some scientists believe that such earthquakes have occurred every 300 to 1,000 years. Other large earthquakes in the Puget Sound region can be expected to have magnitudes of at least 6.5 to 7.5 and depths greater than 40 kilometers. Rasmussen and others (1974) estimate 10year return times for magnitude 6 earthquakes in the Puget Sound area. They also propose return times of 35 and 110 years for magnitude 6.5 and 7.0 earthquakes, respectively.”

http://www.geophys.washington.edu/SEIS/PNSN/INFO_GENERAL/NQT/when_and_where.html

Nisqually was 6.8. The WSDOT visualization is a 7.0.

@Max – if you are so worried about the timeframes, you should start a campaign to should the AWV down now.

By: Max J

Max J — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 19:11:28 +0000

@9
Your third point is about the stupidest thing I’ve ever read. If we think earthquakes happen ten times a century:
http://www.crew.org/region/wa.html

And can often come as little as 3 years apart, how is 4 years “a blink” on the most meaningful scale?

You, sir, are an idiot.

By: Bill B

Bill B — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 22:45:27 +0000

@4 Zelbinian

1. WSDOT is not part of the posse. TCC, Futurewise, Sierra Club, Cascade Bike and Ms Moon are. Sorry that was so hard to figure out.

2. I am not a mass transit denialist. I do not know all the reasons why Seattle is going without rapid ‘public’ transit. But I do know that Light Rail is not ‘rapid’. Nor is it good public transit for the people of Seattle living here today. It may be good ‘mass’ transit for for future populations that Mr McGinn and his supporters (the development and real estate playas) want to build our way to sustainability for. And it is a great system that reinforces our regional sprawl. I am all for a ubiquitous multi-modal public transit system that serves the people of Seattle. Sadly Light Rail is not it. (and sadly, nor will Mr McGinn’s west side light rail).

3. are you kidding me? 2012-2016 in geologic time is a blink. I think any geological scientist would say that the odds are about equal for the big one. Maybe we should just shut the AWV down now if we’re so frightened…

By: Max J

Max J — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 22:17:58 +0000

I am against the tunnel like everyone else, but the video is fun to watch.

By: Wells

Wells — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 18:59:17 +0000

The question to ask is which viaduct replacement option eliminates the threat of catastrophic collapse soonest. The answer there is the Surface/I-5/Transit option.

Advantage: Mike McGinn.

Which tunnel option, Deep-bore or 4-lane cut-n-cover, reduces the threat soonest? The critical factor is the Seawall. The cut-n-cover is a slow-progressing construction process for rebuilding the Seawall. The Deep-bore would most likely finish the seawall first.

However, a ‘box’ tunnel on the Waterfront would strengthen the soils and prevent major liquification. The cut-n-cover is built in 2-block segments. Each completed segment has less threat of soil liquification.

So, in addition to the 4-lane Cut-n-cover handling traffic much better than the Deep-bore, it also acts as a major soil stabilizer.

Advantage: Mike McGinn