Comments on: A Repsonse To The Viaduct Earthquake Video http://hugeasscity.com/2009/10/26/a-repsonse-to-the-viaduct-earthquake-video/ > so much wonderful packaged in such a mess Sun, 14 Mar 2010 22:59:48 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Cary http://hugeasscity.com/2009/10/26/a-repsonse-to-the-viaduct-earthquake-video/comment-page-1/#comment-39691 Cary Thu, 29 Oct 2009 01:48:05 +0000 http://hugeasscity.com/?p=2992#comment-39691 Here's a reasonable, principled suggestion for what leaders should do given this risk. According to an impressive collection of experts at UW -- including a certified MacArthur Genius! -- planned closure is much safer and more manageable than a catastrophic failure. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/opinion/2002837776_viaduct02.html Here’s a reasonable, principled suggestion for what leaders should do given this risk. According to an impressive collection of experts at UW — including a certified MacArthur Genius! — planned closure is much safer and more manageable than a catastrophic failure.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/opinion/2002837776_viaduct02.html

]]> By: Joe G http://hugeasscity.com/2009/10/26/a-repsonse-to-the-viaduct-earthquake-video/comment-page-1/#comment-39568 Joe G Wed, 28 Oct 2009 20:56:34 +0000 http://hugeasscity.com/?p=2992#comment-39568 All this discussion about when the next quake will hit is really kind of silly. The science for predicting earthquakes is very unreliable and pretty much nonexistent. All this discussion about when the next quake will hit is really kind of silly. The science for predicting earthquakes is very unreliable and pretty much nonexistent.

]]> By: Bill B http://hugeasscity.com/2009/10/26/a-repsonse-to-the-viaduct-earthquake-video/comment-page-1/#comment-39550 Bill B Wed, 28 Oct 2009 19:40:45 +0000 http://hugeasscity.com/?p=2992#comment-39550 sorry, "shut" not "should"... sorry, “shut” not “should”…

]]> By: Bill B http://hugeasscity.com/2009/10/26/a-repsonse-to-the-viaduct-earthquake-video/comment-page-1/#comment-39549 Bill B Wed, 28 Oct 2009 19:39:44 +0000 http://hugeasscity.com/?p=2992#comment-39549 "To summarize: the maximum probable earthquake in Washington would be a subduction earthquake having a magnitude exceeding 8 and an epicenter near the coast; it would be caused by sudden slip between the Juan de Fuca and North America plates. From the dating of organic material preserved in rocks along the coast, some scientists believe that such earthquakes have occurred every 300 to 1,000 years. Other large earthquakes in the Puget Sound region can be expected to have magnitudes of at least 6.5 to 7.5 and depths greater than 40 kilometers. Rasmussen and others (1974) estimate 10year return times for magnitude 6 earthquakes in the Puget Sound area. They also propose return times of 35 and 110 years for magnitude 6.5 and 7.0 earthquakes, respectively." http://www.geophys.washington.edu/SEIS/PNSN/INFO_GENERAL/NQT/when_and_where.html Nisqually was 6.8. The WSDOT visualization is a 7.0. @Max - if you are so worried about the timeframes, you should start a campaign to should the AWV down now. “To summarize: the maximum probable earthquake in Washington would be a subduction earthquake having a magnitude exceeding 8 and an epicenter near the coast; it would be caused by sudden slip between the Juan de Fuca and North America plates. From the dating of organic material preserved in rocks along the coast, some scientists believe that such earthquakes have occurred every 300 to 1,000 years. Other large earthquakes in the Puget Sound region can be expected to have magnitudes of at least 6.5 to 7.5 and depths greater than 40 kilometers. Rasmussen and others (1974) estimate 10year return times for magnitude 6 earthquakes in the Puget Sound area. They also propose return times of 35 and 110 years for magnitude 6.5 and 7.0 earthquakes, respectively.”

http://www.geophys.washington.edu/SEIS/PNSN/INFO_GENERAL/NQT/when_and_where.html

Nisqually was 6.8. The WSDOT visualization is a 7.0.

@Max – if you are so worried about the timeframes, you should start a campaign to should the AWV down now.

]]> By: Max J http://hugeasscity.com/2009/10/26/a-repsonse-to-the-viaduct-earthquake-video/comment-page-1/#comment-39542 Max J Wed, 28 Oct 2009 19:11:28 +0000 http://hugeasscity.com/?p=2992#comment-39542 @9 Your third point is about the stupidest thing I've ever read. If we think earthquakes happen ten times a century: http://www.crew.org/region/wa.html And can often come as little as 3 years apart, how is 4 years "a blink" on the most meaningful scale? You, sir, are an idiot. @9
Your third point is about the stupidest thing I’ve ever read. If we think earthquakes happen ten times a century:
http://www.crew.org/region/wa.html

And can often come as little as 3 years apart, how is 4 years “a blink” on the most meaningful scale?

You, sir, are an idiot.

]]> By: Bill B http://hugeasscity.com/2009/10/26/a-repsonse-to-the-viaduct-earthquake-video/comment-page-1/#comment-38981 Bill B Tue, 27 Oct 2009 22:45:27 +0000 http://hugeasscity.com/?p=2992#comment-38981 @4 Zelbinian 1. WSDOT is not part of the posse. TCC, Futurewise, Sierra Club, Cascade Bike and Ms Moon are. Sorry that was so hard to figure out. 2. I am not a mass transit denialist. I do not know all the reasons why Seattle is going without rapid 'public' transit. But I do know that Light Rail is not 'rapid'. Nor is it good public transit for the people of Seattle living here today. It may be good 'mass' transit for for future populations that Mr McGinn and his supporters (the development and real estate playas) want to build our way to sustainability for. And it is a great system that reinforces our regional sprawl. I am all for a ubiquitous multi-modal public transit system that serves the people of Seattle. Sadly Light Rail is not it. (and sadly, nor will Mr McGinn's west side light rail). 3. are you kidding me? 2012-2016 in geologic time is a blink. I think any geological scientist would say that the odds are about equal for the big one. Maybe we should just shut the AWV down now if we're so frightened... @4 Zelbinian

1. WSDOT is not part of the posse. TCC, Futurewise, Sierra Club, Cascade Bike and Ms Moon are. Sorry that was so hard to figure out.

2. I am not a mass transit denialist. I do not know all the reasons why Seattle is going without rapid ‘public’ transit. But I do know that Light Rail is not ‘rapid’. Nor is it good public transit for the people of Seattle living here today. It may be good ‘mass’ transit for for future populations that Mr McGinn and his supporters (the development and real estate playas) want to build our way to sustainability for. And it is a great system that reinforces our regional sprawl. I am all for a ubiquitous multi-modal public transit system that serves the people of Seattle. Sadly Light Rail is not it. (and sadly, nor will Mr McGinn’s west side light rail).

3. are you kidding me? 2012-2016 in geologic time is a blink. I think any geological scientist would say that the odds are about equal for the big one. Maybe we should just shut the AWV down now if we’re so frightened…

]]> By: Max J http://hugeasscity.com/2009/10/26/a-repsonse-to-the-viaduct-earthquake-video/comment-page-1/#comment-38968 Max J Tue, 27 Oct 2009 22:17:58 +0000 http://hugeasscity.com/?p=2992#comment-38968 I am against the tunnel like everyone else, but the video is fun to watch. I am against the tunnel like everyone else, but the video is fun to watch.

]]> By: Wells http://hugeasscity.com/2009/10/26/a-repsonse-to-the-viaduct-earthquake-video/comment-page-1/#comment-38842 Wells Tue, 27 Oct 2009 18:59:17 +0000 http://hugeasscity.com/?p=2992#comment-38842 The question to ask is which viaduct replacement option eliminates the threat of catastrophic collapse soonest. The answer there is the Surface/I-5/Transit option. Advantage: Mike McGinn. Which tunnel option, Deep-bore or 4-lane cut-n-cover, reduces the threat soonest? The critical factor is the Seawall. The cut-n-cover is a slow-progressing construction process for rebuilding the Seawall. The Deep-bore would most likely finish the seawall first. However, a 'box' tunnel on the Waterfront would strengthen the soils and prevent major liquification. The cut-n-cover is built in 2-block segments. Each completed segment has less threat of soil liquification. So, in addition to the 4-lane Cut-n-cover handling traffic much better than the Deep-bore, it also acts as a major soil stabilizer. Advantage: Mike McGinn The question to ask is which viaduct replacement option eliminates the threat of catastrophic collapse soonest. The answer there is the Surface/I-5/Transit option.

Advantage: Mike McGinn.

Which tunnel option, Deep-bore or 4-lane cut-n-cover, reduces the threat soonest? The critical factor is the Seawall. The cut-n-cover is a slow-progressing construction process for rebuilding the Seawall. The Deep-bore would most likely finish the seawall first.

However, a ‘box’ tunnel on the Waterfront would strengthen the soils and prevent major liquification. The cut-n-cover is built in 2-block segments. Each completed segment has less threat of soil liquification.

So, in addition to the 4-lane Cut-n-cover handling traffic much better than the Deep-bore, it also acts as a major soil stabilizer.

Advantage: Mike McGinn

]]> By: Regan http://hugeasscity.com/2009/10/26/a-repsonse-to-the-viaduct-earthquake-video/comment-page-1/#comment-38817 Regan Tue, 27 Oct 2009 18:10:04 +0000 http://hugeasscity.com/?p=2992#comment-38817 Some levity: I'm impressed that Ivar's survives the earthquake in the video - I'll be sure to head there first thing after the quake for some fish & chips. Oh, and besides animating what the liquification of soil next to the sea wall would look like, the video showing collapse of the viaduct is not all that new or revelatory. If you just search footage of the '89 earthquake in San Francisco, you get the same take-aways (and without the $80K price tag): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zS_g3QDdUQ&feature=related Some levity: I’m impressed that Ivar’s survives the earthquake in the video – I’ll be sure to head there first thing after the quake for some fish & chips.

Oh, and besides animating what the liquification of soil next to the sea wall would look like, the video showing collapse of the viaduct is not all that new or revelatory. If you just search footage of the ‘89 earthquake in San Francisco, you get the same take-aways (and without the $80K price tag): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zS_g3QDdUQ&feature=related

]]> By: Mike http://hugeasscity.com/2009/10/26/a-repsonse-to-the-viaduct-earthquake-video/comment-page-1/#comment-38780 Mike Tue, 27 Oct 2009 16:40:14 +0000 http://hugeasscity.com/?p=2992#comment-38780 Is there any indication how secure a deep-bore tunnel would be if faced with a similar earthquake? Is there any indication how secure a deep-bore tunnel would be if faced with a similar earthquake?

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